El Nino alert hints at a better summer for boaters
Long-range weather forecast predicts a warmer, drier summer for Australia with fewer cyclonesIf ever there was a time to buy a boat, this is it: The wild, windy and wet weather that has wreaked Australia’s eastern coast for the last three summers appears to have come to an end.
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed an official end to the La Nina conditions that at times, have made boating difficult, especially in Queensland and NSW, and instead has predicted we’re more than likely about to enter a period of El Nino.
That means we can expect a hotter summer with lower rainfall and fewer passage-interrupting, boat-sinking and infrastructure-wrecking cyclones and storms – if the El Nino arrives as predicted.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said modelling had shown the Pacific Ocean’s temperature in the tropics would reach El Nino levels during winter, a sign that we could expect the same later this year.
"While our El Nino alert criteria have been met, these changes will need to strengthen and sustain themselves over a longer period for us to consider an El Niño event," Ganter said.
"The bureau's long-range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts.
"The long-range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below-average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Nino alert does not change this forecast,” she said.
El Nino is a weather pattern that cycles every three to five years and predicts a higher chance of drier weather in eastern Australia, and a summer that’s warmer than usual for the southern two-thirds of Australia.
Potential impacts of an El Nino
- Reduced rainfall for eastern Australia
- Warmer daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia
- Increased risk of extreme heat
- Increased bushfire danger in south-eastern Australia
- Increased frost risk linked to clear skies at night
- Decreased alpine snow depths
- A later start to the northern wet season
- Reduced tropical cyclone numbers
Tags
Please see our Editorial Guidelines & Code of Ethics (including for more information about sponsored content and paid events). The information published on this website is of a general nature only and doesn’t consider your particular circumstances or needs.
