Batten down the hatches for winter

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest Seasonal Climate Outlook has just been released, using an updated model that builds on the accuracy of its three-month outlooks for temperature and rainfall across Australia.

Updated each month, Seasonal Climate Outlooks provide a key service to many Australian sectors that need to look at the season ahead for their planning, such as the recreational boating and fishing industries.

Bureau of Meteorology Manager of Climate Prediction Services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said the Seasonal Climate Outlook is now based on a dynamical climate model, which combines the physics of the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice to calculate the likely climate conditions across Australia over the next three months.

The National rainfall outlook for June to August is now predicting a wetter winter season is likely for most of Australia.

The chances of above-median winter rainfall are 60 to 70 per cent over a broad area of Australia extending from the northwest across to the southeast (see map). Such odds mean that for every 10 years with similar climate patterns to those currently observed, about six or seven years would be expected to be wetter than average over these areas, while about three or four years would be drier. 

However, it should be noted that over the tropical north of Australia, it is seasonally dry at this time of year. The median rainfall at many tropical locations is between 0 and 1 mm for June to August, and even a small amount of rain would exceed the median. Our tip: head north for a tropical trailerboat trip.

Over the rest of the country, the chances of a drier or wetter winter are roughly equal. So it's the Eastern Seaboard that's staring down the barrel of a wet winter.