Another wet spring, summer ahead, long-range forecast shows
More of the same wet conditions for boaters this summer as La Nina event returns for a third yearAussie boaters can expect another damp summer ahead as the Bureau of Meteorology confirms the La Nina is set to hang around for the third year running.
That means the eastern part of Australia will once again be subject to above-average rainfall over spring and summer – although hopefully not the return of record rainfalls that have flooded large parts of northern NSW and southern Queensland over the last two years.
The latest three-month forecast for Australia shows an 80 per cent higher than expected chance of above-average rainfall for most of Australia’s eastern seaboard, including Tasmania.
“During La Nina events, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than normal,” BoM head of long-range forecasts, Dr Andrew Watkins, said.
“This causes changes in wind, cloud and pressure patterns over the Pacific. When this change in the atmosphere combines with changes in ocean temperature, it can influence global weather patterns and climate, including increasing rainfall over large parts of Australia.”
Of note, the bureau predicts that this year’s La Nina event is unlikely to be as severe as previous years, and likely to peak in spring and ease in summer.
However, it is not just the La Nina affecting our weather over the coming months. According to Watkins, a significant negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event west of Australia is also affecting Australia’s weather, and like the La Nina should reduce in late spring or early summer.
“The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is also in a positive phase, and likely to remain positive into summer,” he said.
“Positive SAM during summer pushes weather systems south, which increases the chance of rain in New South Wales, eastern Victoria and southern parts of Queensland.”
Of note, many of the eastern seaboard’s water catchments are close to capacity, putting low-lying areas at risk of flooding.
The La Nina has been devastating for parts of Australia’s eastern seaboard with lashing rain and wild weather washing away navigation marks, creating huge amounts of flotsam, and even changing landscapes, cutting Queensland’s Bribie Island in half.
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